The Stone Age Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

The stone pit Age - Essay ExampleDuring this time, slew made their tools and weapons mainly with the champion of stones when metal working had not taken place yet. Geographically primeval culture has spread to all continents except Antarctica. The Stone Age is divided into deuce-ace eras, which differ from each other with own peculiarities and conditions. The Stone Age brought humans to a totally new stage of their let onment. When climate drastically changed and glaciers melted, nomadic concourse reached the territory between Israel and Iraq, which hills were full of verdurous trees and wild animals. The affectionateness East became very attractive to humans who found favorable conditions for living here. Ancient people find that grain could give a lot of harvest, so eventually they found a way to gather crop with the help of appropriate stone tools. harmonize to the archaeobotanist, George Willcox (2003), it had been noticed that during three-week period of time one person could gather enough grains for being able to feed four people for the entire year (Stories from the Stone Age). In additional, old-fashioned people realized the efficiency of grain that could be stored for a long period of time without decay in case it was unbroken in a dry place. Consequently, discovering a very profitable place full of potential food, people at last found a reasonableness to stop their nomadic life and settle down. Moreover, their decision to stay on chosen territory was also influenced with the fact that all tools made of stones and intended for crowd harvest were quite heavy, therefore peoples inability and lack of desire to carry their burdens eventually managed to change their lives irrevocably. Settling down in the Middle East made ancient people to face several challenges, one of which was finding ways to produce food out of plants. Also humans managed to develop and widen variety of tools for hunting realizing how precarious this activity was. Hence, pe ople started to use stones connected by cords for catching wild animals and double-bladed sickles for cutting grass. In addition, people discovered usage of grains and began to produce so-called ancestor of bread. Gathering harvest and sharing tools helped people to unite their strength in a way when precession moved from individual prosperity to communitys wellbeing. People of that era had a special ritual for burial. They put dead person into the hole, placed a big stone on a chest and laid some personal possessions and various offerings. As archeologists found out, with the lapse of time this funeral rite approach some changes, like later n people started to took the scalp of the dead person out of a hole and bring it back into the world. Stones which had been found on the mentioned territories contained some scratches, which nowadays archeologists interpret as a first attempt to represent numbers. This fact has a great importance in a make-up of ancient culture. Despite the f act that ancient people at last found an ideal place to stay on, they again were forced to return to their actor nomadic lifestyle later on. Hence, the climate change brought draught which in its turn caused a dreadful shortage of food. So this was another challenge which ancient people were forced to overcome. All population split for small groups and began searching for food. One part of people finally settled down in Jordan border on the

Managing Organisational Change - decentralization of power and the Essay

Managing Organisational Change - decentralization of power and the empowerment of employees - Essay ExampleThe scope of this already demanding situation is further aggravated by the ensuing technological revolutions that are unleashing ground breaking forms at a rapid pace. The source of such a change traces its origins to both in spite of appearance and forthside(a) the organisations. External social, economic and technological changes push the organisations and institutions into an adaptive mode. The resulting pressure ultimately percolates down to the individual employees that alters or motivates to alter the basic aspects of the concerned individuals overall personality and style of communication (Burnes, 2000, p.258-259). Now if such a competitive scenario is further analysed in the context of the universal economic integration that is the direct outgrowth of globalization, i comes to the conclusion that it is next to impossible for the organisations and businesses to sur vive without a proactive initiative on the part of their individual employees in favour of change (Ollinger, 2006, p.1). A dissolute evolving and metamorphosing global economy demands every individual to be an instrument of change. Off course such a change can only be significant if it is well managed and positive in its outlook.The query that deserves ones utmost economic aid is that are the organisations able to adapt to change in a smooth and eas... rves ones utmost attention is that are the organisations able to adapt to change in a smooth and easy way Does change automatically moulds the organisations in its natural course or does it require to be meticulously managed There is no dearth of theoreticians who believe that organisations are naturally malleable to change and somehow manage to adapt to the anthesis circumstances on their own (Thompson, 1967, p.35). However, there does exist a school of somewhat cautious thinkers who hold that there exists a sense of inertia with in the organisations, the magnitude of which may vary from one organisation to other, that makes them somewhat inflexible and if left unmanaged may turn out to be eventually hazardous (Hannan and Freeman, 1977). realistically speaking, organisational change is often a double edged sword that may prove to be either disruptive or adaptive in its outcome (Haveman, 1992, p.48-75). Usually it often gets very difficult for organisations to accept change and the initial reaction is always marked by a spontaneous or knock over resistance. The framework of almost all the organisations often rests on certain institutional or technical structures built over time that often turn out to be the very source of such resistance (Granovetter, 1985, p.481-510). The astonishing fact is that such structures do not directly oppose any sort of change within the organisations, at least at an obvious level. The ultimate resistance more then often comes from the members or the employees in the organisations who can be considered to be the eventual outcome or the final by product of such structures (Coch, & French, 1948, p.512-532). Infact such institutional or technical structures insidiously oppose the change in the sense that even when the change is accepted and

Net Framework Essay Example for Free

earnings Framework EssayNet Framework is a Microsoft bill provided to the development world with an objective to facilitate the consistent object oriented programming environment. The . net Framework comes as an integral component of Windows Operating trunk to create a compute execution environment. For this the . NET Framework comes with the Common Language Runtime (CLR) and the . NET Framework class library. CLR acts as a standard pedestal to build a variety of new performances, where as the . NET Framework class library offers standard implementations new services for CLR-based applications. Such facility of code execution settings will minimize the Software versioning and software deployment conflicts. The built in . net Framework in Operating system will encourage safe(p) execution of code Microsofts design goals in building the . net Framework are Component Infrastructure Simplified Development, Language Integration, Reliability, Security and Interoperability The ad vantages with the . Net Framework include A Development environment which is language Independent and with Multi-Language Support. The partial platform independency of the . net Framework enables it to work on Linux run system.The net Framework supports different types of application development. It even supports the different user accepted tool integration like windows, console, mobile, pocket pc, GPRS, smart client etcetera , The major disadvantage is it doesnt fully support all the operating systems. Unlike Java or JVM, the CLR components, which are essential to run . net application are not readily accessible. Also the Cost of the Integrated Development Environment (IDE) with . NET, ASP. NET, and C is another disadvantage. Though alternative IDEs and Text Editors are available to develop the . net application they experience less efficient productivity.The multiple Language integrating and support aspect of CLR enable the languages like VB to easily coalesce with . net Fram ework.. Through this a class written in Visual Basic can inherit from a base class written in another language like COBOL or C++, when implemented on . NET. This interoperability is supported by the metadata of the CLR in . net Framework. References .NET Framework Advantages, Retrieved November 8, 2000, from http//www. startvbdotnet. com/dotnet/frameworkadvantages. aspx .NET Framework (2), Retrieved November 8, 2000, from http//www. developerfusion. com/samplechapter/1678/introducing-net/3/

Speech and racism in colonial literature Essay Example for Free

Speech and racial discrimination in colonial literature EssayAs Dennis Leary said, racism isnt born, it is taught. Racism is a heavy weapon able to denigrate and dehumanize people. Racism has always been present in colonization especially soon after the Europeans colonized the New World, the idea of racial distinctions developed (LaRocque). Still until today, the colonial attitude especially towards erosive people is due beca drug abuse of economic power. Many postcolonial novels show themes such as racism, abuse of power, delirium and savoir-faire to show the position of both(prenominal) sides of the conflict the black and the white. Literature is a gift because it allows people to shape their perspectives of the world. In the novels Things Fall Apart by Chinua Achebe and warmheartedness of tincture by Joseph Conrad readers are able to read the postcolonial literature perspective in similar stories from different sides. This essay will analyze speech in Heart of si nfulness and Things Fall Apart in order to prove how Achebes novel exposes the racism found in Heart of Darkness.Stories are important because they shape a persons mind by influencing their lives. Stories arise out of a persons belief and therefore behindnot be disproven (Comparing). These both novels through stories portray issues in different societies and its complexity. Things Fall Apart is an amazing novel that shows the life of the Igbo tribe in Nigeria, Africa. The novel surrounds the main(prenominal) character Okonkwo, a tragic hero who refuses to accept the fate of his dead father but rather self-preserves himself. Through Okonkwo many themes are portrayed relations with violence, masculinity and the wideness of religion for the Igbo tribe.Achebes novel shows in detail this society and thus the complexity of their way of living. Lgbo people are hardworking, religious, obedient and review the calendar based on harvesting. This points the set of beliefs and systems that indigenous people of Africa have developed for their lifes (Use). Achebe also dis tackles the role of men and women in society and how women are assign unimportant roles being men the power in the Igbo society. The importance of speech in the novel is prioritized as the author uses Igbo phrase thus creating a distinctive African theme. It shows an image of Africa before colonialism changed it (Use).In the other hand, Josephs Conrads novella acts more as a criticism comparing the civilized and the uncivilized. This shows the power of the white Europeans on their colonization in Africa. As its title, it shows the darkest side of humans by brutality and racism. The novella starts in the Nellie at the Thames River when the captain Charlie Marlow starts to narrate his stories about how he entered to Africa and his experiences. Marlow has always have passion for maps, exploring and adventure that is what begins his journey to a new and mysterious world Africa. Through his stories we s ee the complexity of the African jungle and how this place influences the characters.The only thing that inspires and drives Marlow is his desire to meet Kurtz, an admirable and respected agent. Through his experiences we can see the racism towards the black people and how European colonizers treated them. By the actions of many characters we perceive the ivory smuggling, the ambition of power and money and the evil hidden in the jungle. Therefore it shows evil behind inhumanity and injustice to others. How this darkness is so unchewable that can destroy others and the person itself (Conrad).In both novels we see the importance of speech. Speech acts as a symbol of racism and the distance of style. In Things Fall Apart speech is very important as Achebe uses lgbo haggle in the novel. By incorporating Igbo words, rhythms, language and concepts into an slope text about his socialisation, Achebe goes a long way to bridge a cultural divide (Language). This shows the complexity of the African culture and the misapprehend between cultures. In this case being the lgbo culture and the ones of the colonists. Therefore Achebes incorporation of Igbo words makes his novel even more realistic because it gives the Africans a voice. It also allows the reader to learn more about its culture by looking the meaning of these words.We also see how organized and specific the dialect is relying on the rules to control of facts to people. These words dont make the reading harder but rather they make it more interesting basing on its context and how they are used. Also these words are crucial for the novel because if they are translated to English they might lose their concept. To provide an authentic feel for lgbo culture would be impossible without also allowing proverbs to play a significant role in the novel (Language). We can see how oral is important for the culture as there is plenty colloquy. In lgbo tribes messages are carried orally stories, songs and tales told from families and basically the whole culture relies on oral tradition, never losing the uniqueness of their dialect.It also proves how this culture is much more complex than it seems as there are many different languages within the 9 villages. It shows how two cultures come together as the novel being written in English but never losing the lgbo words. This also represents how certain aspects of cultures are never going to be understood because they are too complex for each other. Achebe plays with words carefully and allows readers to feel part in the story as these words play an importance in the emotions of the reader. Achebes introduction of new forms and language into a traditionalistic (Western) narrative structure to communicate unique African experiences forever changed the definition of world literature (Language).In contrast, in the novella Heart of Darkness speech is represented as silent. Silence marks the distance between the white colonizers and the African. Conrad is not giving speech to the Africans but rather marking the immense space of the misunderstanding of cultures. Here, the human is perceived to have no language, only a physical space and the surrounding nature support this with the muting darkness and unknowingness silence along the riverbanks (Lerch). This is a major issue because without speaking there is no understanding or knowledge. Language allows people to learn from each other, communication is fundamental.This boundary leads to know people only by their physical in the case of the natives, one of the major causes of stereotypes and racism. Speech suddenly proved inadequate for Conrads purpose of letting the European glimpse the unspeakable carving in their hearts (Achebe). This acts as a symbol of power and superiority from part of the colonizers that can speak and hold the control. Natives are not given voice, opinion or the right to express themselves. The crash of cultures brings conflicts to the both sides as any of t hem know each others language. There is a constant absent of noise and only the sound of darkness fills it up.Even though speech is silent in the natives, it plays an important and effective role in the story and characters in the novella. From the beginning the history is told from Marlows stories and experiences that hes telling to the other members of the Nellie. In occidental society, silence is something to be filled. Language is a euphemism, a saving life for all the Europeans (Lerch). Marlows communication forms part of the Chinese box technique that is the story inside another story. His expressions, detailed descriptions, images and emotions transport us to the past, to the heart of darkness. Speech according to characters is seen in various ways, from much too little speak.This represents the personal importance of speech for each character and how it varies depending on the personality and interest of the character. For example speech in Kurtz is represented as insanity because of the lack of understanding and discriminate from society (Heart). However it is positively as it is the link Kurtz has with the natives that is what brings him closer to them and therefore being recognized as the leader of the jungle. In addition, this two novels use speech as a crucial and important aspect but they represent different things.As Eric Parslow said, race is a lazy minds tool for identifying culture. In both novels racism is a theme that stands out. Racism is portrayed differently and is used to explain main issues found in both novels. Many critics lambaste about if in the novel Things Fall Apart there is racism or not. I personally think racism is not found in this novel but rather is misunderstood as Chinua Achebe is criticizing humanity and the inhuman actions done by colonizers to tribes of Africa. The Igbo culture in his novel is shown to the reader before colonization occurs. This helps the reader to have a better understanding on the effect of colon ization and how it can tear cultures apart, by pieces.By the arrival of white colonizers in town we see how Achebe wants to point the Europeans desire of ambition, conquest, violence and racism towards the African cultures. Societies are torn apart and colonizers think they have the power to erase their culture foundation and implement theirs. The westerners tool the foundations of the indigenous peoples society and ways of living and left them with nothing. They also began reformation of the natives minds, by assigning the mark of the negative to everything African and the positive to everything European (Things).Achebes novel is in fact a write back to Conrad as the racism and cruelty he found on the novel. Achebe wants the reader to see the other perspective from the side of the natives. Therefore, he is showing things as they were and those descriptions and actions might be perceived as anti-Semite(a). There is a quote in the book that says The white man is stupid, he is fit to be a slave (Ward). This quote is anti-Semite(a) however you cant say the whole novel is racist because of one quote. In order for a novel to be racist, the whole book needs to reflect this.In contrast Conrads novella Heart of Darkness is still being much critiqued as Africa is portrayed as a primitive place where much racism and violence is held towards the natives (Things). This novel portrays the other side of the story, the perspective from Marlow, a white European. By this we can see how Africa is seen as a different world where the natives are uncivilized and lack intelligence. We are accustomed to experience upon the shackled form of a conquered monster, but there you could look at a thing monstrous and free (Achebe).Conrad through the character Marlow uses words as black, monsters, uncivilized to refer to the natives. Although Conrads descriptions, imagery, metaphors and similes are very powerful and descriptive some are racist against the natives. The arrival of the Europ eans show the power they have and how they believe they can claim for resources and the land that is not theres. As said before, silence endures in the novella as natives have no speech symbolizing the misunderstanding of cultures. The outcome is seen in western authors postcolonial literature by deceptions of unknown groups of people as savages or primitive. When in reality the author has no understanding of the group of people being presented (Things).As said before natives of Africa in Conrads novella are portrayed as uncivilized people, being this an irony. The colonizers are not civilized because of the horrible and racist actions they perform. Due to the complexity of the space they are surrounded they lose their morals. The jungle is a character due to its power to change people. This is also the reason wherefore the colonizers changed and became the uncivilized ones because of their ambition for power. Therefore, Conrads novella can be distributeed as racist but it is very important to remember that the story is told from the other side.As Bob Dylan said Dont criticize what you cant understand. Both of these novels are important for literature in the world. Each one has different objectives and messages. Differences relies on the context and perspective they are being told. Things Fall Apart and Heart of Darkness deal with the big theme of colonization. Whats interesting about them is that we can see both sides of the story and by this form our criteria. I believe it is very important to see the two faces of an issue in order to understand it.However, I consider that you can fully understand something if you have lived it. A person will always have his opinion towards something but will never truly understand it. To criticize a book, that person must have been part of the story and the context that is being told. Therefore we cant say Heart of Darkness or Things Fall Apart is racist if we have not experienced colonization in that context. Both author s are showing readers the perspective from which is being told, so that the reader can have both sides of the story and form their criteria about the complex theme of colonization on the tribes of Africa.Works CitedAchebe, Chinua. An Image of Africa Racism in Conrads Heart of Darkness Massachusetts Review. 18. 1977. Rpt. in Heart of Darkness, An Authoritative Text, background and Sources Criticism. 1961. 3rd ed. Ed. Robert Kimbrough, London W. W Norton and Co., 1988, pp.251-261 Comparing Things Fall Apart and Heart of Darkness. 123HelpMe.com. 20 Oct 2012 http//www.123HelpMe.com/view.asp?id=11427. Conrad, Joseph. Heart of Darkness. The Norton Anthology English Literature. General Ed. Stephen Greenblatt. 8th Ed. New York Norton, 2006. 1891-1947. Heart of Darkness Theme of Language and Communication. Shmoop. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Oct. 2012. http//www.shmoop.com/heart-of-darkness/language-communication-theme.html. LaRocque, Emma. Racism and Colonization. Aboriginal Perspectives. N.p., n.d. Web. 20 Oct. 2012. http//www3.nfb.ca/enclasse/doclens/visau/index.php?mode=theme.

Edward taylor and Metaphor Essay Example for Free

Edward taylor and Metaphor EssayThe Beauty of MetaphorA Metaphor is defined as a grammatical device that pars devil unalike ideas by speaking of one in terms of the other. It asserts that one thing is another thing. iodin of the best poets at using the metaphor is Edward Taylor, an talented New English Puritan. In his Meditation One, Taylor compares Gods Matchless Love to water, saying that it fills Heaven to the Brim Then, in his The facial expression, Taylor says Earth was once a Paradise of Heaven. In both instances, Edward Taylor calls one thing something to help emphasize the marrow he is trying to portray, but ultimately, his metaphor in Meditation One is more effective as it reflects a greater idea. Edward Taylors practice session of metaphor in Meditation One and The Reflection shows how he pulmonary tuberculosisd metaphors to compare an important topic in his poem to something more relatable, but his metaphor in Meditation One is more effective as it portrays a greater message.Edward Taylors use of Metaphor in Meditation One helps portray his message of Gods never ending love for us. In Line 7, Edward Taylor starts the sentence of by saying Oh, Matchless Lovefilling Heaven to the Brim Taylor compares the incomparable love of God to water, as he says it will fill heaven to the brim. By using the verb filling, the reader automatically thinks of something more relatable to his knowledge, water in context to a drink. When one pours water in, the water fills the cup.Ultimately, through his diction choice and use of metaphor, Taylor considers Gods love to be something that fills humanities needs. Since it can fill Heaven, it can fill our souls with a never ending joy. This is why Edward Taylors use of metaphor is so effective, it ulaitmely leads to a bigger, more important conclusion that can be easily derived through his relatable examples. This metaphor, in comparison to the one in The Reflection, is more effective as it plays a vital role in the establishment of a major theme in the poem.Edward Taylors use of metaphor in The Reflection helps portray his message that Earth was once a heavenly place until it was corrupted with sin. In Line 19, Edward Taylor starts the sentence off by saying Earth oncewas Paradise of Heaven Below. 1Divine life, living and dead, whatever the case may be, existed on Earth at one period of time, until the putrefaction of sin took over the Godly world. In this metaphor, Edward Taylor says that Earth once was a Paradise of Heaven Below, or, in other words, that Earth was once a ethereal place. In this case, Taylors metaphor is much more simple, he calls one thing something else. The metaphors main puropose in this case is to call earth, in a past time, a Godly place, until the sinful nature of Adam and Eve led to the abolishment of Earths divineness Due to its simplistic nature, and the message that it emphasizes, this metaphor is not as effective as the previous metaphor.In conclusion, Edwa rd Taylor uses metaphor to perfection.2 To think brillianty and to write brilliantly are two completely different things, and Edward Taylor does both. In both cases, Edward Taylor uses metaphor to call one thing something else. In Meditation One, He calls Gods love water, and in The Reflection, calls Earth a once Divine place. Ultimately, in Meditation One, his use of Metaphor is more effective because it conveys a more important message of Gods inevitable love for us.

Progress Process And Prospect Of Green Hotels Environmental Sciences Essay

Progress Process And Prospect Of commons Hotels environmental Sciences Es wordAbstractShortage of natural resources and environmental pollutions argon considered as signs of globose warming and serious world climatic threat in the last few decades. Hence, environmental conservation has been increasing important to alone sectors of the economy for the countries. though thither be many tourism authorities that earn created the standards or certifications for environment aloney sustainable hotels, very few Malaysia hotels have policies addressing the stretch forths. This check aims to define the further of Malaysian hotel Industry and proposing the effectiveness and prospect for Malaysian environmental hotels.Research ObjectiveAs honey oil wrenchs the color of the day, the big unknown, however, is whether the rest of the industry result follow suit as well as the uncertainty demand for dark- chiliad hotel. Green hotel always close related to sustainability. A sustainable h otel should have as weensy a footprint (calculation the sum of a buildings environmental impact) as possible. However, it is nearly out of the question to achieve a zero footprint in reality. Most hotels could become truly carbon neutral solitary(prenominal) by purchasing green credits or carbon-offsetting (e.g., paying a company to ground trees to counteract the hotels carbon-dioxide emissions). In fact, it requires considerable of funds for a hotel moving theirs step towards green practices by conserving brawn, weewee and potent exorbitance heed, etc. thitherfore, the objectives in this try out argonTo investigate the main factor that influence rhythmic hotel tack into green hotelTo discover the proper ways that make the regular hotel become green hotelTo perceive the future of the hotel after become greenProblem StatementRecently more people are embracing a green lifestyle. Since living buildings contri notwithstandinge to the highest degree 80% of the carbon emis sions in some cities through their energy delectation, a major focus of these efforts has been on sustainable spin. Hotels employment a tremendous amount of energy and irrigate as well as collect a huge amount of waste. By doing their part to carry on, recycle, and reduce, they are protect the planet as well as providing a great place for eco-friendly customers to stay. The purpose of this research is to examine the current state of green hotel industry. Further this study also makes the hospitality industry taking an initiative or implement for the sake of the environment. The industry is aware of these concerns, and has been investigating environmentally-friendly alternatives that would still prove consistent with client concerns for at least the last 15 years.Theoretical FrameworkGreen hotel is created to decrease the amount of waste entering landfills and append the amount of waste that potentiometer be recycled. Hospitality industry must change their strategy into gree n movement also they have to searching practical environmental that lead to a better world. The hotel industry could benefit economically from the green movement, first by attracting guests who wish to adopt a greener lifestyle, as well as prudence money through cost-saving energy practices and equipment adjustments.Being green subject matter Green hotels are adopting environmentally friendly practices and programs that result reduce energy management (Amy 2009), water conservation (JeongDoo), and waste management (Evans, 2008).H4H5H3H2H1Figure 1 Conceptual framework of the main practices of world a green hotelHypothesis1)2)3)4)5)IntroductionGreen Hotels are environmentally-friendly properties whose managers are eager to institute programs that save water, save energy and reduce solid waste while saving money to help protect our one and and earth. Recently more hotels are embracing a green lifestyle. Being green means guests, staff and management are healthy. Since existing buildings contribute al near 80% of the carbon emissions in some cities through their energy use, a major focus of these efforts has been on sustainable construction. legion(predicate) hotels are responding to consumer demands for a healthier and greener lifestyle by making their business more environmentally friendly. Not only consumer demand, financial incentives also resembling to encourage the hospitality industry to move developing more environmentally friendly hotel.Being green means hotel are adopting environmentally friendly practices and programs that willing reduce energy, water and waste (Amy, 2009). Green efforts sess be as basic as water conservation measures (such as encouraging the re-use of guest linens), housekeepers employing environmentally safe cleaning products or Eco-sensitive resort and bath amenities to grander initiatives such as all-green construction (Kathy, 2007). Among the more pronounced Eco efforts are recently built hotels that weave the use of ecologically sound construction materials and ideas into their very conception.Expect further greening of hotels as consumer demand increases. harmonize to a survey conducted by the Travel Industry Association and Partnership, most adults say they would be more likely to select an hotel that uses more environmentally friendly products and playes, because environmentally friendly product make them become more healthier.Besides providing a positive effect, green hotel also give some problems. Hotel must pay more to get friendly product, also they have to looking for a refreshing place to develop their green hotel. It means that they must cutting down a forest to build their green hotel. And that makes our environment become more diminish. belles-lettres ReviewThe Origin of Green PracticesThe hotel industry, like many other did non entertain the concept of saving energy for many years, as oil prices were at an all cadence low in the 1980s and the early part 1990s (Hirschland, Oppen heim and Webb, 2008). The chemical and oil industries were the first to come under investigation by environmentalist due to the visible nature of their environmental impact. The hospitality an industry took a big time to come under scrutiny and as a result was slow to take responsibility in reducing the impact of their business were having on the environment. The concept of green or friendly hotel has become a very serious and pro set up topic within the hospitality arena in the past decade. Bowman (1975, p.74) states that a series of widely manized environmental catastrophes signaled the globalization of environmental concern and that society has entered the last stage of a process that has taken humans from fearing, to understanding, to using, to abusing, and now to worrying about the physical and biologic world around themHospitality providers are now been forced to take responsibility for the impact their services are having on the environment. In 1996, Agenda 21 for the tra vel and tourism industry made hospitality providers aware of the need to enhance sustainability development. There is evidence in todays literature to suggest the implementation of environmental practices is widespread across the hospitality industry as the benefit are infinite, the most important world financial sustainability. Pizman (2009) believes that many hospitality organizations are non interested in environmental sustainability for altruistic or ethical reasons, but are purely investing in environmental practices for selfish profitable reasons.Houdre (2006), cook (2006) and Stark (2009) have made it clear that the prime reason for implementing environmental practices is geared towards profitability. Cotton (2007) believes that the purpose of running any business is to make a profit and so it is alarming the bod of hospitality organizations that are not adopting green practices in order to drive long term profitability. This suggests that there are barriers and obstacles with regard to the implementation of environmental practices in the hospitality industry.Green Hotels in MalaysiaOver the past decade many organization, both in the private and the public sectors have recognized the value of a systematic woo to the management of their organization (Abdallah, 2007). Superficially, it might be argued that environmental management is not important issue in the Malaysian hotel industry. Comparing with the other environmentally developed hotel industry from other countries, Malaysia hotel industry appears lacking in the sensation for environmentally policy (Azusa, 2009).There is a realization among many hotels that environmental management does not solely mean preventing their surroundings from being polluted. periodic practicable activities and consideration, which range from the use of recycled written document to minimizing the use of heavy chemicals also provide a signifi bottom of the inningt cost saving measure for hotels (Hong and Parker, 200 4). Therefore, it is not true to state that investment in environmental management practices will result in the escalation of operational costs and erosion of profit margins (Foster, Sampson and Dunn, 2000)According to the star.com.my five hotels in Malaysia have been chosen as the mod recipients of the ASEAN Green Hotel Award 2010, bringing the total come up of such hotel in the country to 10.the five hotels are The Andaman Langkawi in Sedah, Shangri-LAs Tanjung Aru Resort Spa in Kota Kinabalu. Mines Wellnes Hotel in Selangor, Shangri-Las Rasa Ria Resort in Tuaran and Renaissance Kuala Lumpur Hotel. The ASEAN Green Hotel Award 2008 recipients which managed to retain their status were Hotel Melia Kuala Lumpur, Nexus Resort Karambunai in Sabah, Shangri-Las Rasa Sayang Resort Spa in Penang, Shangri-las Hotel Kuala Lumpur and The frangipanni Langkawi Resort Spa. The ASEAN Green Hotel Standard is an essential tool to support ASEAN as a world class prize destination.Zero Waste Appr oach sack Beyond Best PracticesThis report discusses several topics that illustrate ways hotel are becoming greener. Although implementing the best practices saves money, this report shows how to go beyond best practices. The goal being a friendly hotel is to eliminate as much as possible the negative impacts on the environment both by reducing consumption of resources and by changing the practices so that the waste hotel produce can be employ as fond material. Achieving zero waste may or may not possible in the foreseeable future. What matters is working towards zero waste by continuing to implement programs as new opportunities to use previously wasted materials become available. Nowadays a few leading hotels are striving to become zero waste brands, which does not necessarily mean the elimination of all by-product. It means using resources efficiently, using renewable resources and when generation of by-products is unavoidable, using those by-product as rough material for ot her processes. Besides implementing zero waste, energy conservation and water conservation also important to practices the green hotel.The cost savings and environmental benefits of the zero waste initiative more important and it takes to launch such a program. The process of r separatelying zero waste takes several months to complete with most organizations seeing viable results after the first year (Thayne, 2010). The zero waste process must involve every member of the hotel, with a core team or steering committee overseeing the initiative. To achieve zero waste hotels must line how much waste exists in the organization past to the initiative and work together with the each member of the department to determine the amount of waste created in each category.A few leading hotels today are determined to become zero waste brand, which does not necessarily mean the elimination of all by products. It means that using resources efficiently, using renewable resources and when generation o f by product is unavoidable, using those by products as raw material for other processes (Abhinav and Rajeshwari, 2001).Environmental Management Practices (EMP)Over the past decade many organization, both in the private and the public sectors, have recognized the value of a systematic rise to the management of their organizations. Apparently, it might be argued that environmental management is not an important issue in the Malaysian hotel industry. After all, certain groups might argue that it is impossible for the hotels to be environmentally aware due to high investment cost involved. However, upon deeper examination of the subject might reveal that hotels in Malaysia cannot avoid confronting this issue for long if they are to remain part with-enterprise(a) (Ahmad, 2007). There is a realization among many hotels that environmental management does not only mean preventing their surroundings from being polluted. Daily operational activities and consideration, which range from the use of recycled papers to minimizing the use of heavy chemicals also provide a significant cost saving measure for hotel (Hong Parker, 2004).Environmental management is a management framework for reducing environmental impacts and improving hotel performance overtime. In other words, environmental management provide hotel of all types with a structures approach for managing environmental and regulatory responsibilities to improve overall environmental performance (Vandermerwe Oliff, 1990). Environmental management practice initiatives consist of several practices such as having an environmental policy, develop and rewarding workers to find opportunities to prevent pollution, setting corporation wide internal standards, undertaking internal environmental audits and adopting the philosophy of total quality management in environmental management (Khanna Anton, 2002). In general, environmental management practice would include the extent to which a company has defined its environme ntal policy, developed procedures to establish environmental objectives, to select and implemented environmental practices assessed the outcomes of such practices and has allocated environmental responsibilities (Klassen Whybark, 1996).Such an pressure in the hotel industry would mean that environmental management should be studied from all technical and organizational angles so as to reduce the environmental impact caused by a hotel business operations. The benefit of adopting Environmental Management Practices is multifarious. For instance, of the streamlining of a hotels operational activities to be consonant with environmental needs will accrue savings (Rondinelli Vastag, 1995) through the prevention of environmental degradation in turn leading to lessen cost of production and higher profit (Pava Krausz, 1997 Russo, Fouts Paul, 1997 Waddoek Graves, 1997). Ultimately, the implementation of Environmental Management Practices may provide hotels with unique environmental resou rces operation, capabilities and benefits that may confer a competitive advantage to practitioners (Hart, 1995 Klassen Whybark, 1999). Such benefit may obtain from image benefit, embracing of eco-tourism and cost saving (Aalders, 2002 Holland Foo, 2003 Kollman, 2001 Prakash, 2002).Energy EfficiencyHotels are the largest consumers of energy not only in building construction but also as establishment with complex foundings, which provide guests with high level of multi-faceted comfort and exclusive amenities, treatment and facilities. Many of the services provided to hotel guests are highly resource intensive whether it concerns energy, water or raw materials. A significant amount of the energy used is wasted divergence sample for intelligent measures of energy efficiency and conservation (Joseph, 2009). Since the installation of energy, water and raw material saving techniques in hotels can achieve environmental go up and offer competitive advantages to hotels in outperforming t heir counterparts, many new energy saving facilities have been introduced by the hotel sector in the past few years avocation technological advances (Willy, 2009).The increase in energy price means that energy conservation efforts should be taken to reduce the effect of energy cost (Weng Wai, Buang and Abdul Hakim, p.58, 2006). As stated by Yukata Mizuta (2003), energy conservation may not only bring reductions in carbon dioxide emission, but may also lead to saving in the expenditure on energy. On a worldwide basis, the energy used in the hotels is predominantly fossil fuel based or comes from nuclear reactors (Philip, 2009). A truly sustainable hotel must not only consider ways to use energy wisely but should also consider the possibilities of enhancing the use of energy from renewable resources. About 40% of the energy used in a hotel is electricity, 60% comes from natural gas and oils fuels (Niki, 2008). These energy bearers are brought in by the hotel. The energy is converted by a number of conversion into the most important internal flows of energy namely heat, cold and lighting. Heat is used in the form of hot water hot water is used in the form of hot tap water. Cold is used mainly for cooling and drying the cellular respiration air, mostly cold is produced in the form of ice water.Figure 1. Energy consumption that use in the hotelLighting is one of the largest electrical energy consumers in the hotels, as in many other kinds of utility buildings. Figure 1 shows that some 35% of the total energy consumption in hotel goes to lighting. Lighting installation must provide adequate levels of lighting for each activity. Bright and comfort level are also important for lighting inside the hotels, depending on the domain of a function where lighting are required. Lighting levels necessary for each zone are established in the lighting regulations of each particular country. These levels should be reached by the most suitable lamps for each application. When i t comes to the energy savings that can be made on lighting, there are two main ways.Efficient lighting ask lighting is supplied by light resources, which are made up of lamp and luminaries.The choice of light source depends on various criteria, e.g. efficiency color temperature, color theatrical index, lamp life, emission modeetc. Lighting in the disparate bowls of the hotels have different requirement, but it is very important that the most efficient lamp is chosen for each application.Smart switchingAnother savings can be achieved with smart switching of lighting. Lighting is frequently switched on unnecessarily when there is sufficient solar day or there is no proboscis in the room.With manual operated system especially, light tend to be left burning needlessly.Water ConservationWater conservation encourage hotel to manage how and when water is being used, handle both the technical and human side of water management issues. It is estimated that by 2010, water use increase to approximately 475 gallons per day for each hotel room (Sarah, 2002).however in other accommodations, water uses still a cost and an important stress on the local environment. In many cases water conservation can be a matter of purchasing and using the proper systems. Factors that consider water sources may include renewability, authority impact on the environment and water supplies as well as economic benefit. Some of developing countries, hotel water use may impact the water supplies of the local people. Any water use reduction program must have full support of the each member of the hotel. Some hotel estimated that only small percentage of water consumed by the guest, the remainder is used by the chambermaids during cleaning. Water is crucial resources for the hospitality industry as it limited resource and needed for number activities as illustrated in figure 2.Figure 2. Hotel water system and useIdentifying where water use is extreme important to hotel in developing knowledge domains. With increasing awareness of cost saving opportunities through water conservation, various related programs have been developed and implemented among hotel companies. According to Marriott International (2007) linen apply program, encouraging guests to reuse lines and towels during they stay contributes to saving 11 to 17% on hot water. Previous literature also reported that linen and towel reuse programs are well-established practices in hotel in most countries, with more than two-thirds of the respondents in studies conducted in different countries using such program (Bohdanowicz, 2006 Erdogan and Baris 2007 Mensah, 2006). This program saves not only hot water and energy, but also reduces the use of detergents and thereby reduces wastewater.Waste ManagementHospitality industry can become important factor in the minimization of waste that is currently disposed of at landfill sites. Waste management has been designed and implemented to reduce the volume and toxicity of ga rbage (Iwanowski and Rushmore, 1994). Erdogan and Barish (2007) conducted a study to examine environmental practices and found that paper and food waste are the greatest amount of waste generated sources of hotels. Previous research indicates that the level of hotels commitment to waste sorting and recycling varies, depending on regulatory pressures and local governments support.Waste minimization and management involves reduce, reuse and recycling. These efforts combine to minimise the amount of waste disposed and the cost of disposal and help to learn that final disposal is done in an approved and sustainable manner. Minimizing waste generation begins in purchasing function. Purchasing in bulk, using product manufacture from recycled materials, controlling the usage of product to avoid waste and working with supplier to minimize product packaging are all proven ways to minimize waste generation (David, 2002)Reuse as a means of waste reduction has been practiced in the hospitalit y industry for many years beverage container such as those holding syrup concentrate and beer kegs are typical. Reuse does not have to happen on the property itself used linens can be donated to shelters or other charitable organizations for reuse (Willy, 2009). Reusing materials is better choice than recycling, burning or landfill. Reusing different from recycling, recycling breaks down an item into the basic parts and makes a new product out of it, but reusing an items keeps the material in its cowcatcher form and uses the item over and over again for the same or different purpose.Recycling as a means of conservation can be turned into revenue steam. The price paid for recycled materials varies geographically and over time (Philip, 2009). A recycled product describes a product that is made entirely or partly from secondary material recovered from consumer waste. Some product are reduced to their raw state and remanufactured into something resembling their original state. In the case of recycled paper, the newspaper gathered from guest bedrooms and the used notepaper coming from the hotel copy shop are reduced covering fire to their raw state of paper pulp which is then used to produce more paper. Unfortunately, many products recycled in this manner come back as lesser quality product (David, 2002).Reduce as a means lessening the amount items or resources that are consumed using the amount that is needed. The theoretical account of the reduce task that hotel can do is reduce the amount and toxicity of trash that hotel discard, possibilities include purchasing durable, long lasting goods, seeking product and packaging that are as toxin free as possible and redesigning products to use fewer raw materials in production, last longer or can be used again after their original purpose.Hotel activities should be able to be safely assimilated into natural system, thus highlighting the need of solid and liquid management techniquesFigure 3. Wastage that generated b y hotelSolid waste in hotels has many components, including paper, food, various metals, plastics, aluminum and glass. This gives a picture of the variety of waste that can be produces by only a small number of hotels in a city. When looked at with a zero-waste attitude, these figures show the opportunities for both resource recovery and waste reduction. Implementing a solid waste reduction program in a hotel can create significant cost savings in waste hauling fees while creating a more environmentally friendly hotel (Sarah, 2002). This is especially true as solid waste becomes a more significant environmental issue and landfill fees increase.Often hotels hesitate to establish program in solid management because of the coordination and cooperation needed among management, employees and guests. However the cost benefit is an incentive.Implementing Green InitiativesWhile many companies and individuals talk about ways they can help the environment, it is still only a few that are actu ally creating a plan of action. Meeting Professionals International or MPI took its first step in 2006 at the Professional training Conference, a convention of meeting planners from around the world. MPI worked with the convention center to recycle products from the meeting by donating leftover food bank, donating signs to local schools for art projects and using green catering for conference events (Gardner, 2006). These are simple ways to add a green initiative to the hotel and incorporate a no waste practice at little cost.One way meeting planners can learn what a hotel provides in term of green practice is by placing green betoken into the request for proposal. Some planners are asking for recycling programs to be in place. Planners are also requesting that hotels have complete green programs in place or their hotel will not be chosen for an event (Gardner, 2006)Banquet DepartmentAccording to Nancy Wilson of Meeting Strategies Worldwide, these are some steps that can be taken to green the hotelUse e-mail instead of paper mailUse an online registration systemForgo handing out conference bags unless they are made of recycled materialsA rattling interesting thought is to choose hotels either near the airport or close to all activities relating to the meeting (Gardner, 2006). This will limit carbon dioxide emissions by confining the need for vehicular transportation from one location to the next.As for food service, the banquet department should update how food and chocolate breaks are presented to the guest. Instead of one after another wrapped sweets, honey, jams and creams, the hotel needs to switch to bulk containers that can be reused many times, creating less trash (McPhee, 2006). In addition, instead of throwaway utensils, silverware should be supplied to stir coffee and tea. Refillable water jugs that can be set up sporadically throughout the meeting space with real glasses available should be used in place of bottled water.Changing the lighting to energy efficient bulbs in the meeting space, fitness center and employee only areas of the hotel will be high priority. Groups have particularized lighting needs for the meeting space, but the fitness center and back of house do not need to have many different types of lighting. Fortunately, there are many new efficient bulbs that can now be dimmed and adjusted to the groups needs in the event space (Fedrizzi and Rogers, 2002).The more fervent project will be installing motion sensors throughout the meeting space and back of house. These areas are used for a large amount of time each day, but there are times when no one would be in the areas at all. If the sensors could turn the light on and off when psyche walks in or out of a room by detecting body heat, then the energy would be reduce in comparison to when the lights are left on continuously (Serlen, 2008).Guest RoomThe guest room is a difficult location to implement changes, as it requires the guest to believe what the hot el would like to change. If the guest wants new sheets each day, then the hotel most likely will oblige the guest to make them happy. That being said, many initiatives can be taken to make it easy for the guest to participate in the new policies.Another aspect is how to save energy in empty guest rooms. According to Jeff Sobieski (2008), hotel guestrooms are unoccupied approximately 60% of the time. This mean that for 60% of the time, the hotel can be in control of the temperature and lighting of a guestroom and manage how much energy is being used during that time without interfering with the guests comfort.The following are two examples of energy saving scenarios that can take place in guest rooms. The first is to change light bulbs to energy efficient light bulbs that will last long and use less power. The other change is the turn off program. This program will have the Thermostat linked to the hotel database so the temperature can change when the guest check in and out. This sys tem can also reset itself anytime the guest leaves the room (Freed, 2008). Also, if the room has a balcony, anytime the balcony door opens, the temperature will reset itself.Ran in conjunction with the second scenario, the turn off program, hotels can use in-room occupancy detectors. These detectors use body heat sensors to scan the room to check is a guest has entered or exited the room. Once it detects that someone is in the room, the system will return the temperature of the room back to the guests preference. The sensors can also be used as a way to keep the lights from being left on all day and night. If there is no movement in a present amount of time, the sensors can report database that it is OK to turn off the lights. While this will save energy, some guest prefers to walk into a room with light. This can be fixed by having a hall light turn on when the front door opens so the guest is not entering a dark room. This can be managed by a sensor or by a connection between the door and the light (Hanna, 2008).RestaurantThe areas of restaurant and kitchens that are not seen by guests can save energy through a study of how the appliances are used and comparing that to how they are supposed to be used. The main way to save energy in the kitchens is to teach the staff the proper way to use the equipment (Jones, 2002). For example teach the staff to close the refrigerator door when not in use. In addition, keeping the equipment cleaned and maintained will make sure that the equipment is running at its best level this will help ensure the lowest amount of energy would be used (Lawn, 2008)The idea of replacing the appliances in the laundry area also can be applied to hotel kitchens. For example, a new energy star steam cooker can be 60% more efficient than the regular models available (Brodsky, 2005). This type of savings can be applied to all the appliances.Housekeeping or LaundryThe energy saving in the laundry area will require some installing of new applianc es and systems. While there will be an initial cost associated with the new appliances, it will save energy in the long run. The first change will be to install new gas dryers that can dry fabric more quickly and use less energy. The other new system is a heat recovery unit that can save the heat from the old water cycle in the laundry and transfer the heat to the clean water being used in the next cycle (Fedrizzi and Rogers, 2002). Both of these options are creating new ways to conserve energy, but not changing the actual process of doing laundry.The hotels housekeeping staff would be responsible for watching for leaks throughout all guest rooms and hotel space. According to Ashwin Patel (2008), a single leak can waste 10,000 liters annually all sinks, showers and toilets need to be checked for leaks. These are initial step and easy fixes that can be taken while waiting for larger initiatives to take place.Expectation from Green HotelFor many

Technology Forecasting Essay

Technology omen EssayThe various mathematical models being used to carry forbidden forecasts some achievementions flatus to signifi lavatoryt errors. This occurs because the development of new relationships is not taken into key break through and come-at-able trends changes argon considered negligible. A major failure in prognostic arises from the fact that companionable and political issues are not taken into consideration when forecasting is carried out. It is impossible to predict the early based only on past info. The models that do that are actu eachy excluding qualitative statements such as the opinion of the individuals. Therefore it is essential to use a divers(prenominal) method for relations with these problems. According to the theory of Godet, the approaching is not a continuation of the past but an outcome of the wishes of various actors and the constraints imposed on them by the environment (Godet 1982). The configuration of prices within an aptitude fo od market depends a lot on the residuum in the midst of the supply and demand for life force. In revise to evaluate future life force price scenarios, it is necessary to constitute the parameters that proceed the supply-demand balance. In 1, some typical parameters are presented. Economic growth refers only to the beat of goods and services produced. Energy is actually the driving force that moves any economic activity. The rescue can be specialise in motion by specific activities that convert energy from inheringly sources (e.g. solar, heat, wind, running water, fossil fuels and chemicals) into forms that ordain be used to produce goods and services. Eventually, a high economic growth rate implies urgent needs concerning the uninterrupted supply of energy. In response to that, the understructure interlocking may choose to readjust the price of energy in guild to cover the demand for stable power (Alam 2006). According to Shafiee and Topal (2008), high prices susce ptibility indicate the threat of a physical scarcity of fossil fuels (e.g. oil, accelerator pedal). If production cost increases, then producers depart try to bridle-path this cost to customers. Eventually, the price of energy will rise. When the population increases steadily and in combination with the desire for better living conditions, the demand for energy will increase too. This leads to the requirement for additional energy production which eventually will increase prices. When an energy market is characterized by the domination of one or at least two or 3 suppliers, then these companies may take advantage of the surge in demand and increase prices in order to bring up profits and cover financial losses. environmental taxation is a tool that can be used to meet environmental and national objectives. In the case of energy production, the pollutant will try to pass this additional cost to the customer. Eventually, the inability of the producer to comply with specific rules concerning the environment, will force the consumers to pay more for the same amount of energy. 2) Among the elements that can influence the part of energy price planning, there are some parameters that can be quantified, such as population, economic growth, energy ingestion, type of market and greenhouse suck emissions. According to 2, three possible scenarios concerning the evolution of the earths population are presented. By taking as a typical reference point the year 2050, the deviation surrounded by the final results of the three scenarios is rather prominent. The ongoing population of earth according to U.S. Census Bureau (2009) is 6,792,134,536 billions. This number compared with the three different results reveals three different change rates. Table 1 ( solution United Nations 2004).Current PopulationScenario HighScenario MediumScenario Low6.79 billions10.6 billions8.9 billions7.4 billionsChange concerningcurrent situation+ 56.11%+ 31.07%+8.98% Taking into considera tion the current population of earth and the three scenarios, someone may conclude that the low scenario is impossible to occur in the future. If something unexpected takes place (e.g. fast spread of a certain virus, war, births control etc.) slight changes may occur and the three scenarios might arise in a different form. An other parameter that can affect the future scenarios of energy pricing is the magnitude of economic growth. Economic growth is often measured through the measurement of gross domestic product (GDP).According to 3, the amount annual increase for the conclusion 1981-2008, compared to the GDP of 1980 is 1334.56%. If someone takes into account the projections indicated by the red color, the average increase for the 34 year period is 1773.29%. The PPC S.A. (2009) generates 85% of the countrys electrical energy and holds 91% of wood coal exploitation rights in Greece. Despite the liberalization of the electrical energy wholesale market which started in 2001, the P PC continues to enjoy a monopoly over access to lignite (EUbusiness 2009). Partially affected by this phenomenon, the price of electricityin Greece started to rise after the so-called liberalization (RIZOSPASTIS 2002 NAFTEMPORIKI 2005 RAE 2007 Media2Day Publishing S.A. 2007 iNews.gr 2009). The emissions of carbon dioxide are a parameter that can introduce an additional cost for e genuinely country. This is because the emissions that occur from the consumption of fossil fuels, provided that they are enceinteer than a specific limit, are accompanied by a certain amount of money that will have to be submitted by the pollutant. According to the most recent plan for the emissions rights from 2008 to 2012, the following limits/emissions rights are attributed to the vault of heaven of electricity generation (Voutsadakis 2008) Total quantity 328 million tones of carbon dioxide Electricity generation sector 230 million tones of carbon dioxide PPC 220 million tones of carbon dioxide If the structure of the electricity generation sector in Greece remains the same, beginning from 2013, 2.2 billion euros will have to be submitted for purchasing additional emissions rights. This is equal to 35 more euros for every MWh produced. Consequently the price of electricity will increase by approximately 45% compared to the current prices (Voutsadakis 2008).As mentioned in division 1, numerous parameters, some of which can easily be quantified, have to be taken into account in order to form future scenarios concerning the price of energy. Godet in La Prospective (Godet 1982) emphasizes on the lack of a global and qualitative approach concerning the forecasting process. Although quantitative methods are characterized by a high reliability, especially in short landmark forecasts, in the case of long time periods quantitative methods present many blind spots. This is justified by the fact that in a long time period, the probability for a person to face unexpected events is rather h igh. For this reason, it is not proper to depend only on mathematical methods to make forecasts. What is needed is a combination of both quantitative and qualitative methods. This is exactly what Godet (1982) proposes in his written work. Price of energy can not be cut off from the public of phenomena, that even though can not be easily quantified, do affect in a significant level any action link up to the energy scheme. For this reason, I totally accept the view of Godet, according to which forecasting apart from numbers should be based partially on assumptions, insight and model each one of these factors depend a lot on the opinion of the individual. consider curves can make accurate estimates approximately the evolution of technology cost. This requires the comprehension of the methodology limitations. Once the limitations are taken into account, experience curves can be an takeive tool for every private or public firm dealing with technology issues. Experience curves des cribe the relation between past costs and cumulated production. This way it is possible for someone to estimate future costs through the extrapolation method. An authorized observation is that in order to obtain reliable experience curves, it is essential to apply the specific method to a wide set of cost-cumulative production numbers. Otherwise, the forecasts will be of low reliability. On the other hand, even when the learning curve is evaluated over a wide range of information, relatively dissimilar fits of the same set of numbers are possible to occur each one of them is equally justifiable. The conclusion is that the output of a process can be described as the total of a procedure through which experience is gained and one for which no cost reductions occur. The experience gained from individual components explains why experience curves usually bend towards the even axis this indicates the slowdown of the cost change when a technology matures (Ferioli et al. 2009). The use of experience curves based on a single countrys data might fate many difficulties and uncertainties. When dealing with specific sectors of the energy market (e.g. wind energy) a global industry analysis is more useful especially when someone is seek to forecast global cost issues related to the energy market (Junginger 2001). As mentioned in the first paragraph of this section, limitations of experience curves have to be taken into account. showtime of all, lets mention the advantages of this tool (Neij et al. 2003).1. Experience curves describe how cost declines with cumulative production the curve emphasizes the need of experience to realize cost reductions. It clearly illustrates that RDD programs cannot stand alone.2. Experience curves can be used as a support in strategic decisions.3. Experience curves can be used to analyze the effect of feature policy measures in terms of installed units and cost reductions.4. Experience curves can be used to investigate the existence of national and international transcriptions through which experience is possible to be obtained.5. Experience curves can assist many individuals, such as financial analysts, industry, researchers and policy makers, in analyzing and assessing strategies and policy measures. Correspondingly, the limitations of the experience curves are the following (Neij et al. 2003) The success of this method depends on high-quality data. Unfortunately, uncertainty is an element that dominates in the international literature. Constructing trustworthy experience curves requires a basic understanding of the technology in question. In order to avoid misinterpretation during data analysis, specialists should be asked for their opinion before drawing any conclusions from experience curve analysis. Experience curves are a tool that must(prenominal) be combined with other methods of analysis of cost reduction sources. Even when a vast amount of data is available, it is possible to draw just conclusions on an aggregated level. For a detailed analysis, other data and tools are required. Experience curves do not show the effects of individual parameters, but the combined effect of several elements. The analysis of individual parameters requires additional analysis tools. The limitations of the experience curves arise from data availability. Due to their limitations complementary methods should in any case be taken into account. Experience curves should be considered as a generic tool for energy technology analysis. Technological forecasting is an effective tool in setting technology strategies. A large number of techniques have been evolved for technological forecasting. The quality of forecasts depends on the selected techniques. The plectron can affect the accuracy and reliability of the forecast. According to Levary and Han (1995), a good choice of forecasting method should be based on the following factors* Data availability* head of data validity* Number of variables affecting t echnology development* Degree of similarity between proposed technology and existing technologies According to the international literature, the elements that reduce the efficiency and accuracy of technological forecasting are the following (Mishra et al. 2002)Insufficiencies of Technological ForecastingI. Limitations of Quantitative Techniques Adaptability to current rate of technology change is low.* Many degrees of freedom in a rapid changing environment are difficult to address.* confused mathematical models are difficult to comprehend and practice.* Accuracy, stability and reliability are negatively affected by long-term forecasts.* Lack of adequate past data.II. Limitations of qualitative Techniques (Exploratory) Definition and selection of experts is difficult.* Individual bias enters into subjective assessment methods.* Validity of assumptions in scenario development tends to be uncertain with time.* Social, political and economic factors are usually neglected.* Sharp disru ptions in trends and unexpected events are usually avoided.* Forecasts are sometimes carried out by someone who belongs to a specific organization.III. Limitations of Qualitative Techniques (Normative) The chosen data may be conveniently selected to fit a particular technology.* Technology at the bottom of the tree may be preconceived.IV. Human Related Problems with Forecasters* survival of forecasters team is not correct.* There is a tendency to avoid information gathering and scanning prior to forecast.* Some forecasters lack imagination and/or nerve.V. Problems in Selection of Techniques* Monitoring prior to selection is lacking.* Validation of one technique by another is not carried out to reduce subjectivity.* Techniques do not turn back performance measures.* Failures are not considered during the forecasts. According to the previous issues, the process of forecasting will deliver low reliability results if the limitations are not restricted. In order to improve the accuracy of technological forecasts, one of the issues that need to be addressed is the proper selection of technique. Apart from this, the complexity of technology has to be taken into account as well. Finally, in order to increase the validity of the results of the selected technique, it is recommended to use another technique this will increase the reliability of the forecast (Mishra et al. 2002). It is generally accepted between forecast researchers that the combination of methods improves forecast accuracy (Mackay and Metcalfe 2002). Experts having access to high quality data and by taking into account the previously mentioned issues are able to make relatively high accuracy forecasts concerning the evolution in the sector of technology. On the other hand, someone may wonder how come flock with no expertise in a specific technological sector, have the ability to make, most of the time, an almost accurate forecast about the technological changes that will occur in the future. There ar e many experiments carried out in various scientific areas that justify the ability of non-experts to make an accurate prediction. A research carried out by Austin Grigg, involved specialists, trainees and people with little to none expertise. The result of the experiment was the negligible difference (in favor of the experts) in the accuracy of the prediction between the specialists and the people with little knowledge (Armstrong 1980). This phenomenon is justified by the fact that people who do not have the necessary experience and tools for a scientific forecast, depend generally on their insight (including myself) when they are asked to make a prediction. In the third section of this assessment project, the importance of the qualitative parameters was accepted. The most significant part of the qualitative element in a forecasting process is the insight. Its about the ability to predict something, not by depending on mathematical models and numbers, but on the identification of relationships and behaviors within a model, context, or scenario (Reay 2009). Therefore, when an individual is fully aware of the interactions among the qualitative parameters, that affect the evolution of an under-study issue and the issue itself, then a prediction carried out by this individual will have a high reliability degree, concerning the proper use and explanation of the qualitative data.The chosen case study for this section is the California electricity crisis of 2000 and 2001. The deregulation of the electricity market in California was expected to reduce the high retail prices of electricity. The result was exactly the opposite compared to the initial purpose wholesale prices increased even more, customers experienced interruptions in supply of energy and utilities bankrupted. Among the crisis roots, the following factors are included The absence of additional generating susceptibility. The unexpected wry season and spikes in natural gas prices (California was great ly depended on the operation of hydro plants and natural gas). The market al-Qaida allowed power generation firms to control wholesale prices in the power exchange market. The delay and inability of regulators to predict the crisis and appropriate respond to this phenomenon. In 4.2, someone may observe that power plant outages increased during the crisis period this affected in a high degree the magnitude of blackouts that customers experienced. The yellow strip bars indicate an average increase of 8759 MW for the months January, March and May of 2001 compared to the correspond months of 1999 and 2000.According to 7, the dawn of deregulation indicates a rather smooth trend concerning the evolution of wholesale market prices what was expected to occur had nothing to do with the lancinate increase of prices that took place after that period. The increase in retail prices ( 8-2001 to 2003) was not expected, either because the deregulation was expected to establish low prices or beca use past data indicated that low prices ( 8-red dots) were likely to occur in the years to come.A key point, totally irrelevant to statistical data and concerning the flaws of forecasting techniques applied before the resultant of California, will be analyzed in the next lines. When the State and the regulators of California implemented the deregulation system that was successfully adopted first by other countries (Woo et al. 2003), they proceeded in specific changes (e.g. imposition of retail price caps, partial deregulation) without trying to carry out a detailed study about the complex Californian energy scheme. In other words, what might had been successful somewhere else, it was considered as a guaranteed success in the case of California. Additionally, if the adjustment of energy market infrastructure and potential manipulations had been taken into account by examining the validity of alternative scenarios concerning the risk of deregulating the Californian electricity market , certain mechanisms able to respond to a future crisis would have probably been developed. According to the previous comments, it is obvious that forecasting methods that rely exclusively on historical data trends, they ignore the opinion of individuals and do not take into account the conditions that prevail in the environment where the under-analysis phenomenon develops. Thus, any forecasts make are of low validity and reliability.The following table contains the data for the installed nuclear capacity between 1965 and 1985. These data have been highlighted with the green color.Table 2 (Source Nuclear Energy Agency n.d.).YearsInstalled Capacity (GW)196551970161975721980136198525319903261995345200035220023592005368 By using the available data of table 2, the period 1965-1985 will be used as a reference time (instead of 1967-1987). Respectively, predictions will be made for the period 1990-2005.Forecast method TrendSource ExcelYearsInstalled Capacity (GW)196551970161975721980136198 52531990281.201995342.802000404.402002429.042005466.00Forecast method Linear extrapolationSource ExcelYearsInstalled Capacity (GW)19655197016197572198013619852531990280.801995342.402000404.002002428.642005465.60Forecast method Logarithmic extrapolationSource ExcelYearsInstalled Capacity (GW)19655197016197572198013619852531990282.641995343.672000404.552002428.862005465.28Forecast method Polynomial extrapolationSource ExcelYearsInstalled Capacity (GW)19655197016197572198013619852531990 4001995 5902000 7902002 9002005 1000 It is obvious that among all the extrapolation-forecasting techniques, the one with the lowest divergence from the actual data is the logarithmic extrapolation method followed by the linear technique. On the other hand, none of the used methods was able to found high accuracy forecasts because the nuclear installed capacity evolution was highly affected by the incident of Chernobyl. The various mathematical methods can not express the hero-worship of the scientific community to abandon the development of nuclear sector. According to 9, knowing that the incident of Chernobyl occurred in 1986, it is obvious that the rapid increase in nuclear installed capacity started to decline approximately 4 years (1990) after the incident of Chernobyl.Based on 10 and table 3, someone may conclude that the energy balance in Europe is highly depended on the operation of Gazprom.Table 3 (Source U.S. Energy Information Administration 2008).Country2006 % of Domestic NG ConsumptionGermany37%Turkey64%Italy25%France20%Czech Republic79%Poland47%Hungary54%Slovakia100%Austria74%Finland100%Romania28%Bulgaria96%Greece82%Serbia Montenegro87%Croatia37%Slovenia64%Switzerland12%Skopje100% According to table 3, Greece dependency on Gazproms natural gas is approximately 82%. This share indicates that a potential crisis in natural gas supply could lead to significant problems in sectors such as domestic heating and gas-fired power plants.Greece as a major energy user Greece h as insignificant domestic reserves of oil and gas and relies greatly on energy imports. In 2006, the total energy consumption was 1.4 Quadrillion Btu. The distribution of this amount of energy can be located on 11.Although the share of natural in total energy consumption is not very high ( 11), the high dependency degree on Gazprom supply and the decreasing reserves of Greece in natural gas, would result in significant impacts in the energy balance of Greece. Provided that I would be somehow involved in the coordination of the energy planning of my country, I would propose the following measures.1. Greece already has one natural gas import terminal situated at Revithoussa (DESFA 2007). The supplier is the Algerian company Sonatrach. The first thing that someone would have to do is to estimate the additional quantity that this company could provide to Greece on an annual basis. Then, proceed in reducing the imported natural gas from Gazprom by the same amount.2. The countries current ly facing problems with the natural gas supply from Russia are Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Skopje, Romania and Turkey. Partial supply decreases have also been reported by Austria (90%), Slovakia (70%), the Czech Republic (75%) and Hungary. Another solution to the problem could be the restart of Unit 3 at the Kozloduy Nuclear Power Plant. Kozloduy-3 was shutdown in December 2006 as part of an agreement with the European Union, which was concerned about inadequate safety levels. However, Bulgarias EU accession treaty apparently allows closed reactors to be temporarily re-started in the event of an acute energy shortage (Resnicoff 2009).3. demythologized use of energy, especially in sectors being supplied by natural gas, would be the last recommendation by my side. 9) The first and the third proposed measure can be characterized as a necessary but mercenary approach. The proposed energy policy of Greece towards an energy crisis must ensure the energy security of the country. Taking in to consideration the great dependence on energy imports in Greece, the out of the stripe solutions seems to be enough risky.More precisely, the improvement on the penetration of reticuloendothelial system is a conservative and safe solution. Additionally energy efficiency and rational use of energy can be described as an incremental approach too. The out of the loge solutions in the proposed response include new natural gas suppliers and improvement on energy storage capacity. The first solution is possible to lead to disturbances between Greece and Russia and the second one might require a large capital invested in various storage methods.Regardless the type of the response (out of the box or conservative-incremental approach) that someone might propose, both approaches have their merits and limitations. The adoption of a conservative approach offers a sense of security. Usually this kind of solutions can be completed easily due to the fact that includes measures that have been tested in previous similar situations. Also there are various limitations for this kind of approach. For instance, the increase of RES in Greek fuel mix has the following barriers. The legal framework and the authorization procedure can be described as complex procedures. In many cases this can frustrate many small investors. Another limitation is the inhibitive cost for the interconnection to the grid (mostly for reinforcement or construction of new network lines). Additionally for larger stations (more than _20MW) and in certain areas with very high wind potential there is lack of fit High Voltage (HV) system capacity. Due to environmental restrictions and local community protests, expansion of the HV system is in some cases completely blocked. Finally, in the case of wind farms, public acceptability is also an issue in certain cases, basically due to visual impact or other reasons (Hatziargyriou, 2007). The adoption of an out o box solution in the case of an energy crisis might be risky. For this reason, this type of approach could be followed by conservative solutions ensuring that the energy security of the country will remain sufficient in any case. As it is mentioned before, Greece began receiving gas from Azerbaijan and the relative imports will likely increase as the Turkey-Greece interconnector is further utilized. This can be described as an out o box solution that can lead to imbalances between Greece and Russia, reducing the amount of Russian natural gas in Greece. On the other hand, the tilt among various natural gas suppliers will have a positive effect on the corresponding energy prices. To sum up, both approaches have advantages and disadvantages. The selection of an appropriate crisis management scheme is a complicate procedure and requires mature choices taken by veteran politicians. In addition an out o box solution for Greece may be a conservative incremental approach for another country that is an energy exporter or a country that has a stronger economy or better international relationships than Greece.10) ReferencesAlam, S.M. (2006). Economic Growth With Energy online. Accessed 24 December 2009. operational from .Armstrong, S.J. (1980). The Seer-Sucker Theory The Value of Experts in Forecasting online. Accessed 1 January 2010. Available from .Cabral, L. (2002). The California energy crisis. Japan and the World Economy online. 14(3), Accessed 5 January 2010, p.335-339. Available from .California Energy Commission (2009). Utility-wide Weighted Average Retail Electricity Prices online. Accessed 6 January 2010. Available from .Consumer Watchdog (2002). How Deregulation Let the Power Industry Steal $71 Billion From California online. Accessed 5 January 2010. Available from .DESFA (2007). Liquefied Natural flatulency Terminal at Revythousa online. Accessed 7 January 2010. Available from .Energy Information Administration (2009). Greece Energy Data, Statistics and Analysis Oil, Gas, Electricity, Coal online. Accesse d 7 January 2010. Available from